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The United States' useful new allies in Somalia
 
Offers of considerable amounts of financial aid and new weapons by CIA negotiation teams have persuaded at least three of Somalia's many local warlords to publicly call for US military intervention to help defeat their rivals who they now accuse of being Al Qa'ida supporters.  Though this is a similar scenario to the 'score-settling'  by local anti-Taliban commanders in Afghanistan, using US air strikes to take out rival Chieftains, it does however have some major advantages for Washington as it provides a degree of legitimacy for US military action.
 
The discreet negotiations to ensure Ethiopian acquiescence to US overflights, perhaps even the limited use of their territory along with the reported arrangements to allow the use of the port of Berbera in Northern Somalia, take on an added significance now that tribes largely based in the Mijertein and Hawiya areas of Somalia have openly expressed opposition to the present transitional Government in Mogadishu.
 
Highlighting the threat supposedly posed by radical Islamic groups, three local warlords led by Abdullahi Nur Gabyow claimed that Al-Qaida and Al-Itihad have three major bases inside and around Mogadishu alone. While the southern port city of Kismayu and Bosasso are also major strongholds. The claims have been dismissed by the transitional Government who strongly deny the presence of the terrorist groups in Somalia. However this is likely to cut little ice with the Bush administration as there are very obvious scores to settle with the Somali warlords and their Islamic extremist supporters. Few within the US military establishment will forget the humiliation of October 1993 and the sight of dead US Special Force soldiers who had been on a United Nations mission, being dragged round the streets of Mogadishu by screaming mobs will certainly not be forgotten.
 
Several hundred soldiers from the 101st Airmobile Division have replaced US Marines in southern Afghanistan in order to free them for a new mission, the likelihood is high that Delta Force Commandos, Rangers and US Marines will therefore soon be openly operating in support of the CIA Special Operations Group paramilitaries believed to have been inserted into Somalia some weeks ago. Similar counter-terrorist operations are likely to carried out against the Yemen at roughly the same time. The United States has an additional ace in the pack as the joint Israeli intelligence and NSA SIGINT interception facility at Dahlak Island off the coast of Eritrea has been closely monitoring events in the area for months.
 
Unless events take an unexpected turn, the United States will wish to complete operations in Southern Arabia and the Horn of Africa before the start of a major US-Israeli assault on Iraq to finally topple Saddam Hussein's regime or Hezbollah in the Lebanon. Nor can Tehran rest easily as the United States should be well aware of its many links to international terrorist groups, including Al Qa'ida and both the CIA and NSA are expected to step up surveillance and intelligence gathering against the Iranian regime.
 
It will be interesting to see whether the assistance of British Special Forces will be offered or accepted by the Government in Nairobi in the event of the conflict spreading across the border into Northern Kenya as Islamic rebels may seek to escape US military operations around Mogadishu and in the southern area of Somalia.

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